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Politics · Polymarket

Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?

Trade on Polymarket →
2.85%
SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26010203040506070%2.85%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 2.6% in 4d (0.8–8.1%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$23.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 2.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price2.85%
Spread + depth+13.75 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability16.60%
6025
Shares
$5,025
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.3¢ (10.5%)
Mid Price
2.8¢
Total Depth
$269,656
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
2.7¢59
2.4¢10
2.3¢22
2.2¢730
2.1¢1,000
2.0¢4,777
1.2¢417
1.1¢455
Asks (Sell)
3.0¢1,826
3.1¢7
3.7¢7
3.9¢5
4.3¢7
4.9¢7
6.0¢50
6.9¢102
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
4.10¢+36.81%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
16.60¢+453.22%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
50.60¢+1586.65%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 2.85%, based on $23.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 26, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.