Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Culture · Polymarket

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
14.00%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 2705101520253035404550%14.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 9.5% in 14d (7.6–11.7%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$9.4K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 14.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price14.00%
Spread + depth+1.53 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability15.53%
6440
Shares
$5,440
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (14.3%)
Mid Price
14.0¢
Total Depth
$44,138
Bid/Ask Imbalance
15% bid
Bids (Buy)
13.0¢634
12.0¢2,137
11.0¢5,973
10.0¢3,779
9.0¢6,636
8.0¢7,544
7.0¢8,841
6.0¢4,350
Asks (Sell)
15.0¢3,034
16.0¢5,724
17.0¢4,640
18.0¢6,284
19.0¢4,814
20.0¢1,060
21.0¢1,043
22.0¢936
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
15.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
15.53¢+3.53%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
24.44¢+62.94%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar Culture Markets

Polymarket logoPolymarket
20.50%+388

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

20.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $101.3K
Manifold logoManifold
5.41%+1748

Is Digger (2026) a musical?

5.41%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 50 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
98.45%

US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 21 2026?

98.45%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 325 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
98.76%

US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 14 2026?

98.76%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 127 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
98.59%

US Average Gas Price Is $4.100 or more on September 14 2026?

98.59%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 2.1K Mana
Manifold logoManifold
79.62%-391

US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on any day in September 2026?

79.62%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 129 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 14.00%, based on $9.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.