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Culture · Polymarket

Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
9.50%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15246810121416%9.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 9.8% in 14d (8.9–10.7%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$16.8K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (10.5%)
Mid Price
9.5¢
Total Depth
$17,468
Bid/Ask Imbalance
32% bid
Bids (Buy)
9.0¢6,558
8.0¢4,171
7.0¢23,605
6.0¢32,156
5.0¢3,311
4.0¢7,354
3.0¢9,862
2.0¢19,993
Asks (Sell)
10.0¢16,755
11.0¢19,080
12.0¢1,094
13.0¢30
14.0¢3,676
15.0¢8,693
17.0¢8
18.0¢100
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
10.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
10.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
18.21¢+82.08%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldPangram say average feed <50% human by 1 March 2027?
39.30%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 9.50%, based on $16.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around April 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.