Entertainment · Polymarket

Will Sebastian Stan be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will Sebastian Stan be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 33%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

24.50%

Model projection: 24.9% in 14d (18.0–33.2%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 75.5% on "Will Sebastian Stan be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?", backed by $113 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $113
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 24.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price24.50%

Spread + depth+39.88 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability64.38%

1553

$553

Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

23.0¢ (93.9%)

Mid Price

24.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$382

Bid/Ask Imbalance

6% bid

Bids (Buy)

13.0¢91

10.0¢41

5.0¢50

4.0¢18

2.0¢49

1.0¢118

Asks (Sell)

36.0¢200

38.0¢20

75.0¢50

76.0¢90

87.0¢100

88.0¢100

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

40.45¢+12.37%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

64.38¢+78.82%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

$10,000 order

64.38¢+78.82%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Sebastian Stan be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 24.50%, based on $113 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 21, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.