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Culture · Polymarket

Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?

Trade on Polymarket →
47.00%
Fri 21Sat 22Aug 23Mon 24Tue 25Wed 26Thu 27Fri 28Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 061520253035404550556065%46.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 41.4% in 3d (27.7–56.6%)-0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$17.0K
Momentum
-0.02pt/day

Your call

The market says 47.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price47.00%
Spread + depth+4.52 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability51.52%
1941
Shares
$941
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
4.0¢ (8.7%)
Mid Price
46.0¢
Total Depth
$5,307
Bid/Ask Imbalance
8% bid
Bids (Buy)
44.0¢250
36.0¢300
33.0¢250
22.0¢129
18.0¢200
16.0¢44
8.0¢13
7.0¢431
Asks (Sell)
48.0¢50
49.0¢210
50.0¢370
51.0¢8
52.0¢660
53.0¢1,455
54.0¢555
58.0¢2,222
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
48.76¢+1.58%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
51.52¢+7.33%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
63.56¢+32.43%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 47.00%, based on $17.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 6, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.