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Politics · Polymarket

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
20.00%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17051015202530%20.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 17.7% in 14d (12.6–24.4%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$29.1K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 20.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price20.00%
Spread + depth+2.96 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability22.96%
4355
Shares
$3,355
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (10.0%)
Mid Price
20.0¢
Total Depth
$310,253
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
19.0¢3,159
18.0¢1,455
16.0¢725
15.0¢1,000
14.0¢915
13.0¢4,332
12.0¢675
11.0¢3,000
Asks (Sell)
21.0¢15
22.0¢135
23.0¢4,805
24.0¢964
25.0¢589
26.0¢1,099
27.0¢579
28.0¢599
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
22.63¢+7.74%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
22.96¢+9.34%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
40.98¢+95.14%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 20.00%, based on $29.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 20, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.