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Politics · Polymarket

Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?

Trade on Polymarket →
97.20%
06 AM12 PM06 PMThu 0306 AM12 PM06 PMFri 0406 AM12 PM06 PMSat 0506 AM12 PM06 PMSep 0606 AM12 PM06 PMMon 070102030405060708090100%97.20%

Stats

24h Volume
$54.2K

Your call

The market says 97.2%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price97.20%
Spread + depth+2.30 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability99.50%
1005
Shares
$5
Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.4¢ (2.5%)
Mid Price
97.2¢
Total Depth
$14,661
Bid/Ask Imbalance
96% bid
Bids (Buy)
96.0¢112
95.9¢74
89.2¢223
89.1¢30
89.0¢20
73.0¢225
72.9¢150
70.1¢88
Asks (Sell)
98.4¢76
99.8¢174
99.9¢305
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
98.75¢+0.35%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
99.66¢+1.28%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
$10,000 order
99.66¢+1.28%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by at least 25%?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 97.20%, based on $54.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 6, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.