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Politics · Polymarket

Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Trade on Polymarket →
64.50%
Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Aug 16Mon 17Tue 18Wed 19Thu 20Fri 21Sat 22Aug 23Mon 24Tue 25Wed 26Thu 27Fri 28Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 0701020304050607080%64.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$43.3K

Your call

The market says 64.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price64.50%
Spread + depth+2.77 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability67.27%
1486
Shares
$486
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.6%)
Mid Price
64.5¢
Total Depth
$44,353
Bid/Ask Imbalance
6% bid
Bids (Buy)
64.0¢50
63.0¢50
62.0¢70
56.0¢50
52.0¢10
51.0¢50
50.0¢19
47.0¢10
Asks (Sell)
65.0¢489
67.0¢66
68.0¢475
69.0¢800
71.0¢421
72.0¢2,546
73.0¢3,973
74.0¢4,321
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
65.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
67.27¢+3.50%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
72.45¢+11.47%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
51.00%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 64.50%, based on $43.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 6, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.