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AI · Polymarket

Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Trade on Polymarket →
61.00%
62.0% calibrated
Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 07102030405060708090100%61.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 74.8% in 14d (65.5–82.2%)+0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.2K
Momentum
+0.02pt/day

Your call

The market says 61.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price61.00%
Spread + depth+1.74 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability62.74%
1594
Shares
$594
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (3.3%)
Mid Price
61.0¢
Total Depth
$6,637
Bid/Ask Imbalance
13% bid
Bids (Buy)
60.0¢670
59.0¢380
58.0¢66
50.0¢20
49.0¢50
46.0¢18
37.0¢69
26.0¢50
Asks (Sell)
62.0¢422
63.0¢2,114
64.0¢2,378
65.0¢970
66.0¢284
67.0¢116
70.0¢100
71.0¢50
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
62.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
62.74¢+1.19%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
69.21¢+11.64%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 61.00%, based on $2.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.