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Politics · Polymarket

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
34.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 072025303540455055%34.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 31.0% in 14d (27.9–34.1%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$48.8K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 34.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price34.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability35.00%
2857
Shares
$1,857
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.9%)
Mid Price
34.5¢
Total Depth
$2,987,513
Bid/Ask Imbalance
5% bid
Bids (Buy)
34.0¢14,820
33.0¢45,065
32.0¢145,125
31.0¢760
30.0¢50,500
28.0¢5,357
26.0¢1,200
23.0¢4,000
Asks (Sell)
35.0¢10,566
36.0¢83,458
37.0¢49,608
38.0¢59,088
39.0¢27,992
40.0¢33,140
41.0¢17,934
42.0¢62,950
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
35.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
35.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
35.62¢+1.78%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 34.50%, based on $48.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 5, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.