Culture · Polymarket

Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?

11.50%

Model projection: 2.2% in 14d (1.4–3.6%)-0.03pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 88.5% on "Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?", backed by $64.9K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $64.9K
Momentum: -0.03pt/day

Your call

The market says 11.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price11.50%

Spread + depth+0.50 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability12.00%

8333

$7,333

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (8.7%)

Mid Price

11.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$103,682

Bid/Ask Imbalance

4% bid

Bids (Buy)

11.0¢1,256

10.0¢12,098

9.0¢11,226

8.0¢4,488

7.0¢526

6.0¢1,240

5.0¢5,620

4.0¢6,736

Asks (Sell)

12.0¢9,059

13.0¢400

14.0¢1,865

15.0¢900

16.0¢30

17.0¢200

18.0¢50

26.0¢50

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

12.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

12.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

37.02¢+208.47%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldDiesel export ban before midterms?

30.11%

Same bet?

Similar Culture Markets

Manifold

30.11%+232

Diesel export ban before midterms?

30.11%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 224 Mana

Manifold

81.51%-441

Will China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls still be in effect on November 30, 2026?

81.51%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 15 Mana

Manifold

39.67%+152

Will Prox2 Return Before End of October 2026?

39.67%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Manifold

50.00%-100

New official forum update in October 2026?

50.00%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Manifold

96.76%-2986

Will the US or China officially announce a Busan trade truce extension past Nov 10, 2026, by November 6, 2026?

96.76%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Manifold

20.12%+397

Escalation of conflict in the Middle East before October?

20.12%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 13 Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 11.50%, based on $64.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.