Economics · Polymarket

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Q: What is the current probability for "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 10%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

9.50%

Model projection: 5.4% in 14d (3.9–7.3%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 90.5% on "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?", backed by $3.8K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $3.8K
Momentum: -0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 9.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price9.50%

Spread + depth+9.38 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability18.88%

5296

$4,296

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.0¢ (31.6%)

Mid Price

9.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$5,496

Bid/Ask Imbalance

4% bid

Bids (Buy)

8.0¢415

7.0¢611

6.0¢10

5.0¢285

4.0¢1,108

3.0¢1,309

2.0¢637

1.0¢1,265

Asks (Sell)

11.0¢256

12.0¢631

13.0¢1,025

14.0¢1,614

15.0¢1,023

19.0¢100

20.0¢60

21.0¢11

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

11.70¢+6.37%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

18.88¢+71.64%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

54.43¢+394.78%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

54.75%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 9.50%, based on $3.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 30, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.