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Sports · Polymarket

Will Montserrat win on 2026-09-26?

Trade on Polymarket →
73.50%
71.9% calibrated
Mon 1412 PMTue 1512 PMWed 1612 PMThu 1712 PMFri 1812 PMSat 1912 PMSep 2012 PMMon 2112 PMTue 2212 PMWed 2312 PMThu 2412 PMFri 2512 PMSat 2612 PM354045505560657075808590%73.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$235

Your call

The market says 73.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price73.50%
Spread + depth+1.80 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability75.30%
1328
Shares
$328
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.4%)
Mid Price
73.5¢
Total Depth
$20,205
Bid/Ask Imbalance
14% bid
Bids (Buy)
73.0¢552
72.0¢575
71.0¢960
70.0¢882
69.0¢113
68.0¢114
67.0¢90
66.0¢62
Asks (Sell)
74.0¢41
75.0¢842
76.0¢769
77.0¢1,126
78.0¢5,579
79.0¢3,556
80.0¢1,134
81.0¢1,506
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
74.70¢+0.94%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
75.30¢+1.76%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
78.00¢+5.41%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 17 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

FC Andorra
99.95%
Finland
99.80%
MontserratViewing
73.50%
Switzerland
73.50%
Iceland
65.50%
CD Tenerife
50.50%
Spain
48.50%
Croatia
47.50%
Faroe Islands
43.50%
Bulgaria
34.50%
England
24.50%
Kazakhstan
19.00%
North Macedonia
7.50%
San Marino
0.10%
Scotland
0.05%
Slovenia
0.05%
Granada CF
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Montserrat win on 2026-09-26?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 73.50%, based on $235 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 26, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.