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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
2.35%
12 PMSep 2012 PMMon 2112 PMTue 2212 PMWed 2312 PMThu 2412 PMFri 2512 PMSat 2612 PMSep 2712 PM02468101214161820%2.45%

Stats

24h Volume
$59.5K

Your call

The market says 2.4%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price2.35%
Spread + depth+3.68 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability6.03%
16588
Shares
$15,588
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.5¢ (20.4%)
Mid Price
2.5¢
Total Depth
$33,020
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
2.2¢38
2.1¢200
1.9¢10
1.8¢200
1.5¢200
1.1¢268
1.0¢300
0.8¢200
Asks (Sell)
2.7¢6
2.8¢190
2.9¢200
3.0¢944
3.2¢200
3.3¢200
3.4¢100
3.5¢1,100
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
3.23¢+19.76%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
6.03¢+123.27%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
27.77¢+928.54%
avg fill · slippage

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Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 2.35%, based on $59.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 29, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.