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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.45%
09 PMFri 2503 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMSat 2603 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMSep 2703 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PM05101520253035%0.35%

Stats

24h Volume
$72.0K

Your call

The market says 0.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price0.50%
Spread + depth+7.65 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability8.15%
12266
Shares
$11,266
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (22.2%)
Mid Price
0.5¢
Total Depth
$31,802
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
0.4¢223
0.3¢359
0.2¢542
0.1¢3,733
Asks (Sell)
0.5¢423
0.6¢28
0.7¢106
0.8¢3,000
0.9¢957
1.2¢13
1.3¢100
1.6¢5
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
1.38¢+176.46%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
8.15¢+1530.47%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
43.83¢+8665.05%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.45%, based on $72.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 28, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.