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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
39.50%
12 PMSep 2012 PMMon 2112 PMTue 2212 PMWed 2312 PMThu 2412 PMFri 2512 PMSat 2612 PMSep 2712 PMMon 2812 PMTue 295101520253035404550%39.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$50.1K

Your call

The market says 39.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price39.50%
Spread + depth+1.51 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability41.01%
2439
Shares
$1,439
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.6%)
Mid Price
38.5¢
Total Depth
$39,643
Bid/Ask Imbalance
12% bid
Bids (Buy)
38.0¢192
37.0¢225
36.0¢506
35.0¢426
34.0¢341
33.0¢325
32.0¢50
31.0¢291
Asks (Sell)
39.0¢531
40.0¢218
41.0¢634
42.0¢814
43.0¢495
44.0¢356
45.0¢891
46.0¢120
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
39.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
41.01¢+5.14%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
52.40¢+34.35%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 39.50%, based on $50.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 29, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.