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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
12.40%
12 PMSep 2012 PMMon 2112 PMTue 2212 PMWed 2312 PMThu 2412 PMFri 2512 PMSat 2612 PMSep 2712 PMMon 2812 PM024681012141618202224%12.30%

Stats

24h Volume
$46.5K

Your call

The market says 12.4%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price12.40%
Spread + depth+5.03 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability17.43%
5737
Shares
$4,737
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.4¢ (3.3%)
Mid Price
12.3¢
Total Depth
$40,626
Bid/Ask Imbalance
2% bid
Bids (Buy)
12.1¢52
11.7¢50
11.4¢37
11.3¢100
11.1¢200
11.0¢45
10.9¢300
10.7¢111
Asks (Sell)
12.5¢230
12.8¢5
12.9¢5
13.0¢86
13.1¢100
13.2¢350
13.8¢100
13.9¢210
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
12.95¢+3.61%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
17.43¢+39.46%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
47.77¢+282.17%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.40%, based on $46.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 29, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.