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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
23.50%
07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMFri 0401 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM03 PM04 PM05 PM18202224262830%23.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$4.5K

Your call

The market says 23.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price23.50%
Spread + depth+2.68 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability26.18%
3820
Shares
$2,820
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (4.3%)
Mid Price
23.5¢
Total Depth
$10,633
Bid/Ask Imbalance
9% bid
Bids (Buy)
23.0¢187
22.0¢363
21.0¢261
20.0¢426
19.0¢323
18.0¢435
17.0¢1,104
16.0¢1,121
Asks (Sell)
24.0¢41
25.0¢593
26.0¢1,825
27.0¢1,452
28.0¢664
29.0¢608
30.0¢408
31.0¢508
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
24.90¢+3.74%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
26.18¢+9.08%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
56.00¢+133.33%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 23.50%, based on $4.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 7, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.