Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Culture · Polymarket

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?

Trade on Polymarket →
34.50%
Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 1305101520253035404550%36.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$96.6K

Your call

The market says 34.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price34.50%
Spread + depth+3.84 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability38.34%
2608
Shares
$1,608
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.9%)
Mid Price
34.5¢
Total Depth
$148,967
Bid/Ask Imbalance
15% bid
Bids (Buy)
34.0¢102
33.0¢1,780
32.0¢5,850
31.0¢1,050
30.0¢1,254
29.0¢255
28.0¢2,308
27.0¢3,558
Asks (Sell)
35.0¢8
36.0¢118
37.0¢453
38.0¢510
39.0¢1,434
40.0¢1,248
41.0¢1,553
42.0¢122
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
36.51¢+4.32%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
38.34¢+9.55%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
47.91¢+36.87%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar Culture Markets

Polymarket logoPolymarket
▼ 0.124H
0.05%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $123.1K
Polymarket logoPolymarket
16.50%+506

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $74.7K
Polymarket logoPolymarket
20.50%+388

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

20.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $101.3K
Manifold logoManifold
98.45%

US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 21 2026?

98.45%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 325 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
98.76%

US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on September 14 2026?

98.76%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 127 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
98.59%

US Average Gas Price Is $4.100 or more on September 14 2026?

98.59%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 2.1K Mana

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 34.50%, based on $96.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 14, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.