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Politics · Polymarket

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
93.25%
Fri 1112 PMSat 1212 PMSep 1312 PMMon 1412 PMTue 1512 PMWed 1612 PMThu 1712 PMFri 1812 PM50556065707580859095100%93.25%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 92.1% in 3d (85.2–96.0%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$48.8K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 93.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price93.25%
Spread + depth+3.39 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability96.64%
1035
Shares
$35
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.3¢ (3.5%)
Mid Price
93.3¢
Total Depth
$36,970
Bid/Ask Imbalance
73% bid
Bids (Buy)
91.6¢80
89.1¢150
89.0¢236
88.2¢285
88.1¢500
88.0¢1,000
86.0¢19
83.0¢12
Asks (Sell)
94.9¢5
96.0¢40
96.2¢7
96.3¢39
96.4¢399
96.5¢360
97.3¢6
97.4¢38
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
96.12¢+1.29%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
96.64¢+1.83%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
98.67¢+3.97%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 93.25%, based on $48.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 19, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.