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Politics · Polymarket

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
20.50%
AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 130102030405060708090100%20.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 11.6% in 14d (7.0–18.6%)-0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$132.7K
Momentum
-0.02pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (4.9%)
Mid Price
20.5¢
Total Depth
$229,042
Bid/Ask Imbalance
41% bid
Bids (Buy)
20.0¢5,015
19.0¢19,486
18.0¢245,234
17.0¢96,777
16.0¢22,108
15.0¢9,822
14.0¢10,378
13.0¢2,324
Asks (Sell)
21.0¢6,606
22.0¢4,495
23.0¢1,543
24.0¢880
25.0¢880
26.0¢409
27.0¢3,705
28.0¢30
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
21.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
21.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
31.59¢+50.43%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?
62.83%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 20.50%, based on $132.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.