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Politics · Polymarket

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.15%
Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 150102030405060%0.15%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.4% in 14d (0.3–0.7%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$14.2K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (66.7%)
Mid Price
0.1¢
Total Depth
$366,806
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
0.1¢188,184
Asks (Sell)
0.2¢14,455
0.3¢17,437
0.4¢28,635
0.5¢10,136
0.6¢4,979
0.7¢3,242
0.8¢452
0.9¢15,443
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
0.27¢+36.66%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
0.74¢+268.21%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
3.92¢+1860.60%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 4 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Flávio Bolsonaro
39.45%
Renan Santos
2.55%
Augusto Cury
2.20%
Pablo MarçalViewing
0.15%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?
63.96%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.15%, based on $14.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.