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Politics · Kalshi

J.D. Vance — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
81.00%
79.67% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 1368707274767880828486%82.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 82.9% in 14d (82.2–83.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$250
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 81.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price81.00%
Spread + depth+1.00 pts
Fee1.26% of stake
Break-even probability83.03%
1220
Shares
$207
Net if it wins

Other Real Candidates — 35 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. VanceViewing
81.00%
Ted Cruz
75.50%
Ron DeSantis
65.00%
Marco Rubio
60.00%
Thomas Massie
48.00%
Rand Paul
43.00%
Glenn Youngkin
36.50%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
35.50%
Brian Kemp
34.50%
John McEntee
33.00%
Josh Hawley
31.00%
Gregory Bovino
29.50%
Tulsi Gabbard
28.50%
Tucker Carlson
28.50%
Vivek Ramaswamy
26.50%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
25.50%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
25.00%
Steve Bannon
22.50%
Nikki Haley
21.50%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
21.50%
Byron Donalds
21.50%
Pete Hegseth
19.50%
Greg Abbott
18.50%
Spencer Pratt
15.50%
Jeff Bezos
15.00%
Donald J. Trump
14.50%
Erika Kirk
14.50%
Tim Scott
13.00%
Larry Hogan
13.00%
Elise Stefanik
12.00%
Katie Britt
11.10%
Jared Kushner
10.50%
John Thune
6.50%
Matt Gaetz
5.20%
Elon Musk
3.20%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)63.50%
Platforms disagree by 35pts — wider than usual, worth checking each quote below before trusting the average.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
Kalshi
Furthest from consensus
J.D. Vance — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?81.0%80¢ / 82¢
50%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Vance46.00%45¢ / 47¢
50%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "J.D. Vance — Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 81.00%, based on $250 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (46.00%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 63.50%. See the full comparison table below.