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Sports · Kalshi

Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?

Trade on Kalshi →
11.50%
5.30% fee-adjusted
9.9% calibrated
Tue 21Thu 23Sat 25Mon 27Wed 29Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17810121416182022%12.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 11.8% in 14d (11.1–12.4%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$156
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 11.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price11.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee6.16% of stake
Break-even probability12.74%
8333
Shares
$7,272
Net if it wins

Other Real Candidates — 61 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

France
11.55%
SpainViewing
11.50%
England
7.05%
Brazil
6.05%
Argentina
5.95%
Germany
4.55%
Portugal
4.05%
Italy
3.65%
Netherlands
3.35%
USA
2.30%
Morocco
2.15%
Mexico
1.85%
Belgium
1.35%
Norway
1.35%
Iraq
1.00%
Finland
1.00%
Colombia
0.85%
Japan
0.80%
Scotland
0.50%
Paraguay
0.50%
Poland
0.50%
Albania
0.50%
Sweden
0.50%
Croatia
0.50%
Nigeria
0.50%
Peru
0.50%
Korea Republic
0.45%
Uruguay
0.45%
Haiti
0.40%
Senegal
0.40%
Jordan
0.40%
Costa Rica
0.40%
Honduras
0.40%
Qatar
0.35%
Turkiye
0.35%
Austria
0.35%
Ghana
0.35%
Chile
0.35%
Czechia
0.30%
Switzerland
0.30%
Canada
0.30%
Australia
0.30%
Ecuador
0.30%
Ivory Coast
0.30%
Ukraine
0.30%
Egypt
0.30%
Cape Verde
0.30%
Congo DR
0.30%
Greece
0.30%
United Arab Emirates
0.30%
Ireland
0.25%
Denmark
0.25%
Curacao
0.25%
Venezuela
0.25%
Kosovo
0.20%
Romania
0.20%
Israel
0.20%
North Macedonia
0.15%
Burkina Faso
0.15%
Slovakia
0.10%
Saudi Arabia
0.10%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 11.50%, based on $156 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2031, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.