Politics · Kalshi

Will become President of the United States before 2045?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will become President of the United States before 2045?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 10%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Kalshi →

9.50%

3.17% fee-adjusted

Model projection: 8.0% in 14d (6.5–9.8%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Kalshi consensus prices "No" at 90.5% on "Will become President of the United States before 2045?", backed by $0 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $0
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 9.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

KalshiLive best ask

Quoted price9.50%

Spread + depth+1.50 pts

Fee6.23% of stake

Break-even probability11.69%

9091

$8,029

Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill John Fetterman resign from the United States Senate?

30.55%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will become President of the United States before 2045?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 9.50%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 22, 2045, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.