Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?
Trade on Manifold →Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 87.13% on "Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?", backed by 13 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 13 Mana
Your call
The market says 12.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
ManifoldNext Bond
no history published
LimitlessLockheed Martin (LMT) Up or Down - Daily
no history published
PolymarketWill Tomas Martin Etcheverry win the 2026 Men's US Open?
no history published
ManifoldWill my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?
no history published
PolymarketWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 12.87%, based on 13 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 11, 2027, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.