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Culture · Polymarket

Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
10.50%
Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28Tue 29Wed 30OctoberFri 02Sat 03Oct 04Mon 05Tue 06Wed 07Thu 08Fri 09Sat 10Oct 11Mon 122468101214161820222426%10.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 7.9% in 14d (6.1–10.3%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$33.7K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 10.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price10.50%
Spread + depth+0.66 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability11.16%
8965
Shares
$7,965
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (9.5%)
Mid Price
10.5¢
Total Depth
$232,350
Bid/Ask Imbalance
3% bid
Bids (Buy)
10.0¢170
9.0¢7,163
8.0¢22,138
7.0¢36,179
6.0¢2,455
5.0¢330
4.0¢2,756
3.0¢6,881
Asks (Sell)
11.0¢7,574
12.0¢5,688
13.0¢12,098
14.0¢17,131
15.0¢4,600
16.0¢7,887
17.0¢1,100
18.0¢3,100
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
11.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
11.16¢+1.41%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
15.13¢+37.57%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 10.50%, based on $33.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.