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Politics · Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
37.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 07253035404550556065707580%37.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 37.2% in 14d (32.9–41.7%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$44.6K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 37.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price37.50%
Spread + depth+0.69 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability38.19%
2618
Shares
$1,618
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.7%)
Mid Price
37.5¢
Total Depth
$205,413
Bid/Ask Imbalance
26% bid
Bids (Buy)
37.0¢4,436
36.0¢1,191
35.0¢5,992
34.0¢1,666
33.0¢4,041
32.0¢2,669
31.0¢11,151
30.0¢1,692
Asks (Sell)
38.0¢2,120
39.0¢6,412
40.0¢7,246
41.0¢1,210
42.0¢1,110
43.0¢1,162
44.0¢700
45.0¢236
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
38.00¢+0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
38.19¢+0.50%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
41.39¢+8.91%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 37.50%, based on $44.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around April 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.