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Politics · Polymarket

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Trade on Polymarket →
89.50%
Fri 1812 PMSat 1912 PMSep 2012 PMMon 2112 PMTue 2212 PMWed 2312 PMThu 2412 PMFri 2512 PMSat 2612 PMSep 2712 PMMon 2812 PMTue 2912 PMWed 30556065707580859095100%89.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 97.0% in 7d (95.8–97.8%)+0.03pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$84.1K
Momentum
+0.03pt/day

Your call

The market says 89.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price89.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability90.00%
1111
Shares
$111
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.1%)
Mid Price
89.5¢
Total Depth
$370,855
Bid/Ask Imbalance
59% bid
Bids (Buy)
89.0¢8,818
88.0¢10,313
87.0¢14,950
86.0¢90,183
85.0¢168
84.0¢113
83.0¢221
82.0¢280
Asks (Sell)
90.0¢13,011
91.0¢13,366
92.0¢54,581
93.0¢41,725
94.0¢30,758
95.0¢761
96.0¢1,946
97.0¢985
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
90.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
90.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
90.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 89.50%, based on $84.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 30, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.