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Politics · Polymarket

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Trade on Polymarket →
51.50%
Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28Tue 29Wed 30OctoberFri 02Sat 03Oct 04Mon 05Tue 06Wed 070102030405060708090100%51.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 82.9% in 14d (75.5–88.4%)+0.05pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$50.1K
Momentum
+0.05pt/day

Your call

The market says 51.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price51.50%
Spread + depth+1.32 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability52.82%
1893
Shares
$893
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.9%)
Mid Price
51.5¢
Total Depth
$70,691
Bid/Ask Imbalance
5% bid
Bids (Buy)
51.0¢140
50.0¢200
49.0¢904
48.0¢2,431
46.0¢148
39.0¢692
34.0¢40
33.0¢40
Asks (Sell)
52.0¢349
53.0¢3,805
54.0¢9,105
55.0¢9,289
56.0¢76
59.0¢560
60.0¢400
61.0¢1,000
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
52.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
52.82¢+1.57%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
54.04¢+3.92%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 51.50%, based on $50.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.