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AI · Polymarket

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
86.50%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17405060708090100%86.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 89.4% in 14d (85.7–92.2%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$1.0K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 86.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price86.50%
Spread + depth+2.29 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability88.79%
1126
Shares
$126
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.2%)
Mid Price
86.5¢
Total Depth
$7,170
Bid/Ask Imbalance
8% bid
Bids (Buy)
86.0¢204
85.0¢140
82.0¢80
81.0¢60
73.0¢100
70.0¢25
57.0¢38
55.0¢30
Asks (Sell)
87.0¢153
88.0¢384
89.0¢255
90.0¢222
91.0¢186
92.0¢209
93.0¢143
94.0¢456
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
87.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
88.79¢+2.05%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
95.19¢+9.41%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 86.50%, based on $1.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.