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Politics · Polymarket

Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Trade on Polymarket →
1.85%
Thu 27Fri 28Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 160510152025303540%1.85%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 1.5% in 14d (0.6–3.8%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$6.1K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 1.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price1.85%
Spread + depth+5.58 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability7.43%
13455
Shares
$12,455
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.9¢ (48.6%)
Mid Price
1.8¢
Total Depth
$338,856
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
1.4¢40
1.3¢77
1.2¢500
1.0¢1,698
0.9¢8,000
0.8¢1,000
0.7¢2,291
0.6¢4,500
Asks (Sell)
2.3¢176
2.7¢40
2.8¢403
3.0¢563
3.3¢219
3.4¢771
3.5¢615
3.8¢1,000
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
3.23¢+40.45%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
7.43¢+223.13%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
19.62¢+753.05%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?
63.96%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 1.85%, based on $6.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.