Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Politics · Polymarket

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.05%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 1700.511.522.53%0.05%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.5% in 14d (0.5–0.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$79.2K
Momentum
0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 0.1%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price0.50%
Spread + depth0.00 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability0.50%
200000
Shares
$199,000
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
—
Mid Price
—
Total Depth
$5,476,783
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
Asks (Sell)
0.1¢123,329
0.2¢141,148
0.3¢131,003
0.4¢303,997
0.5¢385,715
0.6¢1,012,422
0.7¢81,337
0.8¢4,780
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
0.10¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
0.22¢+124.30%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
0.48¢+377.40%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 6 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

JD Vance
23.65%
Michelle Obama
0.25%
Nikki Haley
0.15%
Elon Musk
0.15%
Glenn Youngkin
0.15%
Eric TrumpViewing
0.05%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)1.89%
Platforms agree closely — 2.45pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
PolymarketWill Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.05%—
25%
PredictIt
Confirmed 1d
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Trump2.50%2¢ / 3¢
75%

Similar Politics Markets

PredictIt logoPredictIt
▲ 0.524H
2.50%+3900

Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Trump

2.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL —
PredictIt logoPredictIt
▲ 0.524H
4.50%+2122
R

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Trump Jr.

4.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL —
PredictIt logoPredictIt
▲ 0.524H
3.50%+2757
R

Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Trump

3.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL —
Polymarket logoPolymarket
▼ 1.8524H
1.15%

Trump out as President by September 30?

1.15%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $59.2K
PredictIt logoPredictIt
▼ 124H
44.00%+127
R

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Republican

44.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL —
PredictIt logoPredictIt
▲ 1.524H
57.50%-135
D

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Democratic

57.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL —

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.05%, based on $79.2K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (2.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 1.89%. See the full comparison table below.