Skip to content
Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Politics · Polymarket

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Trade on Polymarket →
96.40%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17828486889092949698100%96.40%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 97.6% in 14d (96.6–98.3%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$13.1K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 96.4%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price96.40%
Spread + depth+0.26 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability96.66%
1035
Shares
$35
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.4¢ (0.4%)
Mid Price
96.4¢
Total Depth
$262,086
Bid/Ask Imbalance
24% bid
Bids (Buy)
96.2¢23
96.1¢955
95.7¢10
95.1¢200
95.0¢581
94.9¢47
94.3¢127
94.2¢1,500
Asks (Sell)
96.6¢409
96.7¢921
96.8¢97
97.1¢150
97.2¢150
97.5¢680
97.6¢1,657
97.7¢2,462
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
96.60¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
96.66¢+0.06%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
97.55¢+0.98%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 96.40%, based on $13.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.