Economics · Polymarket

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 13%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

12.50%

Current CPI Inflation (YoY)3.3%as of 2026-07-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Model projection: 10.7% in 14d (9.5–12.1%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 87.5% on "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?", backed by $5.4K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $5.4K
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 12.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price12.50%

Spread + depth+1.69 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability14.19%

7048

$6,048

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (8.0%)

Mid Price

12.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$9,128

Bid/Ask Imbalance

30% bid

Bids (Buy)

12.0¢1,483

11.0¢734

10.0¢5,247

6.0¢3,279

5.0¢5,575

4.0¢7,401

3.0¢8,730

2.0¢27,596

Asks (Sell)

13.0¢257

14.0¢5,200

15.0¢5,201

16.0¢150

21.0¢1,006

22.0¢959

35.0¢5

65.0¢332

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

13.65¢+4.99%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

14.19¢+9.15%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

35.63¢+174.05%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026?

21.00%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.50%, based on $5.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.