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Politics · Polymarket

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Trade on Polymarket →
42.00%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 153035404550%42.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 43.5% in 14d (40.6–46.4%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$409
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
4.0¢ (9.5%)
Mid Price
42.0¢
Total Depth
$208,900
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
40.0¢90
39.0¢72
37.0¢10
27.0¢26
26.0¢5
23.0¢10
22.0¢10
21.0¢5
Asks (Sell)
44.0¢248
45.0¢200
47.0¢50
48.0¢212
49.0¢287
51.0¢114
56.0¢11
58.0¢47
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
44.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
52.32¢+18.92%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
77.46¢+76.04%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?
63.96%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 42.00%, based on $409 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.