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Culture · Polymarket

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Trade on Polymarket →
12.50%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17810121416182022%12.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 12.5% in 14d (11.6–13.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$7.0K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 12.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price12.50%
Spread + depth+6.21 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability18.71%
5343
Shares
$4,343
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (24.0%)
Mid Price
12.5¢
Total Depth
$340,541
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
11.0¢9,933
7.0¢286
6.0¢1,133
5.0¢400
4.0¢550
3.0¢667
2.0¢1,800
1.0¢1,510
Asks (Sell)
14.0¢5
15.0¢35
16.0¢340
17.0¢854
18.0¢407
19.0¢1,925
20.0¢4,427
21.0¢596
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
16.31¢+16.47%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
18.71¢+33.68%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
46.85¢+234.63%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.6 billion worldwide?
38.17%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.50%, based on $7.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.