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Politics · Polymarket

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
26.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 071820222426283032%26.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 27.2% in 14d (24.8–29.7%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$42.6K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 26.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price26.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability27.00%
3704
Shares
$2,704
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (3.8%)
Mid Price
26.5¢
Total Depth
$81,782
Bid/Ask Imbalance
17% bid
Bids (Buy)
26.0¢3,979
25.0¢4,983
24.0¢5,081
23.0¢3,211
22.0¢21,982
21.0¢16,062
20.0¢348
19.0¢366
Asks (Sell)
27.0¢11,193
28.0¢11,410
29.0¢9,108
30.0¢7,709
31.0¢7,214
32.0¢4,427
33.0¢4,327
34.0¢10,209
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
27.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
27.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
28.16¢+4.28%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 election for governor of Michigan?: Democratic
91.50%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 26.50%, based on $42.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.