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Politics · Polymarket

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
49.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 0730354045505560%49.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 51.0% in 14d (46.5–55.4%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$62.9K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 49.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price49.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability50.00%
2000
Shares
$1,000
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.0%)
Mid Price
49.5¢
Total Depth
$321,478
Bid/Ask Imbalance
15% bid
Bids (Buy)
49.0¢2,700
48.0¢1,775
47.0¢6,147
46.0¢5,056
45.0¢5,361
44.0¢2,766
43.0¢937
42.0¢2,582
Asks (Sell)
50.0¢8,850
51.0¢3,405
52.0¢7,016
53.0¢5,948
54.0¢1,476
55.0¢3,379
56.0¢5,097
57.0¢1,426
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
50.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
50.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
50.94¢+1.89%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 US House election in Iowa's 1st District?: Democratic
79.50%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 49.50%, based on $62.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.