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Politics · Polymarket

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
73.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 076668707274767880%73.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 73.7% in 14d (72.5–74.9%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$44.5K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 73.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price73.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability74.00%
1351
Shares
$351
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.4%)
Mid Price
73.5¢
Total Depth
$901,863
Bid/Ask Imbalance
11% bid
Bids (Buy)
73.0¢3,501
72.0¢59,463
71.0¢5,566
70.0¢7,866
69.0¢10,279
68.0¢7,591
67.0¢5
66.0¢500
Asks (Sell)
74.0¢1,901
75.0¢7,722
76.0¢14,291
77.0¢7,649
78.0¢10,813
79.0¢6,327
80.0¢13,967
81.0¢5,010
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
74.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
74.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
75.13¢+1.53%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Maine?: Democratic
69.00%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 73.50%, based on $44.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.