Economics · Polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 49%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

47.00%

Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-07-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Model projection: 51.8% in 14d (40.7–62.6%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 53% on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?", backed by $4.3K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $4.3K
Momentum: +0.01pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.0¢ (6.3%)

Mid Price

47.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$1,785,357

Bid/Ask Imbalance

1% bid

Bids (Buy)

46.0¢8,112

45.0¢8,783

44.0¢3,623

43.0¢1,715

42.0¢115

41.0¢230

40.0¢3,214

39.0¢115

Asks (Sell)

49.0¢7,568

50.0¢3,733

51.0¢579,886

52.0¢154,270

53.0¢3,790

54.0¢3,870

55.0¢3,880

56.0¢3,805

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

49.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

49.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

50.06¢+2.15%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

44.20%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 47.00%, based on $4.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 9, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.