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Culture · Polymarket

Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30?

Trade on Polymarket →
44.50%
Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 190102030405060708090100%44.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 61.8% in 14d (38.7–80.6%)+0.03pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.6K
Momentum
+0.03pt/day

Your call

The market says 44.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price44.50%
Spread + depth+24.49 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability68.99%
1450
Shares
$450
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.2%)
Mid Price
44.5¢
Total Depth
$15,141
Bid/Ask Imbalance
3% bid
Bids (Buy)
44.0¢138
43.9¢94
43.4¢80
42.5¢20
42.1¢156
42.0¢379
41.4¢20
36.0¢20
Asks (Sell)
45.0¢113
45.1¢28
45.4¢20
45.8¢10
45.9¢19
46.4¢10
46.5¢20
47.0¢413
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
45.37¢+0.82%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
68.99¢+53.30%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
95.40¢+112.01%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 44.50%, based on $2.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 30, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.