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Politics · Polymarket

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
7.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 07246810121416%7.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 6.7% in 14d (5.1–8.8%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$92.5K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 7.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price7.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability8.00%
12500
Shares
$11,500
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (13.3%)
Mid Price
7.5¢
Total Depth
$3,860,590
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
7.0¢32,725
6.0¢31,465
5.0¢73,249
4.0¢276,194
3.0¢25,328
2.0¢19,011
1.0¢304,579
Asks (Sell)
8.0¢79,509
9.0¢149,472
10.0¢58,310
11.0¢309,527
12.0¢111,168
13.0¢11,797
14.0¢33,587
15.0¢11,125
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
8.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
8.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
8.34¢+4.21%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will control the Senate after the 2026 election?: Republican
35.50%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 7.50%, based on $92.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 5, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.