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Economics · Polymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket →
70.50%
Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 156264666870727476%70.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 71.0% in 14d (69.5–72.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$7.0K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 70.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price70.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability71.00%
1408
Shares
$408
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.4%)
Mid Price
70.5¢
Total Depth
$1,375,865
Bid/Ask Imbalance
7% bid
Bids (Buy)
70.0¢9,486
69.0¢17,211
68.0¢80,072
67.0¢8,012
66.0¢100
65.0¢2,572
64.0¢88
63.0¢150
Asks (Sell)
71.0¢35,705
72.0¢30,139
73.0¢68,163
74.0¢10,058
75.0¢5,000
76.0¢5,412
77.0¢5,000
78.0¢5,020
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
71.00¢-0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
71.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
71.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
54.75%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 70.50%, based on $7.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 28, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.