Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 97.05% on "Iran leadership change by September 30?", backed by $29.9K in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $29.9K
- Momentum
- -0.00pt/day
Your call
The market says 3.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
Live Order Book Depth
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Iran leadership change by September 30?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 2.95%, based on $29.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.