Economics · Polymarket

US recession by end of 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "US recession by end of 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 8%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

7.50%

Model projection: 7.3% in 14d (6.6–8.1%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 92.5% on "US recession by end of 2026?", backed by $5.5K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $5.5K
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 7.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price7.50%

Spread + depth+3.12 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability10.62%

9415

$8,415

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (13.3%)

Mid Price

7.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$6,923

Bid/Ask Imbalance

35% bid

Bids (Buy)

7.0¢619

6.0¢4,418

5.0¢1,538

4.0¢3,250

3.0¢12,320

2.0¢21,613

1.0¢113,732

Asks (Sell)

8.0¢3,008

9.0¢1,906

10.0¢1,000

11.0¢500

12.0¢160

14.0¢2,025

15.0¢100

16.0¢700

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

8.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

10.62¢+32.77%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

23.87¢+198.32%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "US recession by end of 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 7.50%, based on $5.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 31, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.