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Politics · Polymarket

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

Trade on Polymarket →
37.50%
06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMThu 0303 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PM2025303540%37.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$31.1K

Your call

The market says 37.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price37.50%
Spread + depth+1.75 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability39.25%
2548
Shares
$1,548
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.7%)
Mid Price
37.5¢
Total Depth
$26,977
Bid/Ask Imbalance
26% bid
Bids (Buy)
37.0¢86
36.0¢708
35.0¢2,341
34.0¢6,374
33.0¢958
32.0¢547
31.0¢1,528
30.0¢205
Asks (Sell)
38.0¢393
39.0¢1,132
40.0¢2,877
41.0¢1,448
42.0¢400
43.0¢172
44.0¢370
45.0¢379
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
38.00¢+0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
39.25¢+3.28%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
55.67¢+46.49%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 37.50%, based on $31.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.