Economics · Polymarket

Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 20%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

20.05%

Current CPI Inflation (YoY)3.3%as of 2026-07-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Model projection: 22.0% in 4d (15.1–31.0%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 79.95% on "Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?", backed by $749 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $749
Momentum: +0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 20.1%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price20.05%

Spread + depth+27.18 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability47.23%

2117

$1,117

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

0.9¢ (4.5%)

Mid Price

20.1¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$11,608

Bid/Ask Imbalance

1% bid

Bids (Buy)

19.6¢170

19.5¢127

19.4¢98

19.1¢20

17.7¢10

17.6¢248

13.0¢92

10.0¢21

Asks (Sell)

20.5¢180

20.7¢141

21.4¢100

21.5¢70

21.8¢20

22.5¢27

33.2¢20

44.9¢62

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

20.87¢+1.80%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

47.23¢+130.38%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

89.70¢+337.57%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 20.05%, based on $749 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 9, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.