Economics · Polymarket

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 22%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

23.50%

Model projection: 17.0% in 14d (12.2–23.0%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 76.5% on "Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?", backed by $920 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $920
Momentum: -0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 23.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price23.50%

Spread + depth+55.68 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability79.18%

1263

$263

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

7.0¢ (29.8%)

Mid Price

23.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$2,212

Bid/Ask Imbalance

3% bid

Bids (Buy)

20.0¢164

17.0¢140

12.0¢20

2.0¢244

1.0¢58

Asks (Sell)

27.0¢73

29.0¢20

43.0¢10

44.0¢85

45.0¢30

47.0¢100

65.0¢50

66.0¢25

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

38.59¢+42.94%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

79.18¢+193.25%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

88.61¢+228.17%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

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Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 23.50%, based on $920 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.