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Economics · Polymarket

Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?

Trade on Polymarket →
4.45%
Current U.S. Unemployment Rate4.1%as of 2026-07-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 030123456789%4.45%

Stats

24h Volume
$461

Your call

The market says 4.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price4.45%
Spread + depth+44.53 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability48.98%
2042
Shares
$1,042
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
4.5¢ (101.1%)
Mid Price
4.5¢
Total Depth
$48,332
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
2.2¢70
2.1¢133
2.0¢208
1.9¢200
1.8¢484
1.1¢1,541
1.0¢2,005
0.2¢5
Asks (Sell)
6.7¢21
10.9¢5
24.6¢235
24.7¢140
24.8¢217
27.9¢90
28.0¢400
28.1¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
23.60¢+252.17%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
48.98¢+631.07%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
90.16¢+1245.60%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 4.45%, based on $461 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 4, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.